IMF oil-price scenario could raise Australian fuel prices
In the IMF scenario, global oil prices reach $US130 a barrel between the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
An IMF scenario involving prolonged Middle East disruption and oil prices reaching $US130 a barrel could raise Australian petrol prices, increase inflation and add pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates.
Claims
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The International Monetary Fund modelled a scenario in which the Middle East conflict persists through June 2027 and disrupts commercial shipping.
“the conflict persists through the end of June 2027, keeping the straits of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb largely closed to commercial shipping”
- 130USD/barrel
In the IMF scenario, global oil prices reach $US130 a barrel between the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
“oil prices reach $US130 from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027”
- 30USD/barrel
The IMF scenario involves a $US30-a-barrel increase from the oil price described as being above $US106 a barrel.
“a hypothetical $US30 jump in the price of crude oil, from over $US106 a barrel now”