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AllegedFunding inflation-related pressures and the pledge to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 would require tax rises or benefit cuts of about £35bn, according to the IFS.
Global bond-market turmoil intensified amid inflation and deficit concerns. UK 30-year gilt yields reached 6%, a 28-year high, while rising five- and 10-year yields increased borrowing-cost pressure ahead of the budget.
The yield on 10-year UK government bonds reached 5.38% by mid-morning on Thursday.
Estimated cost of the Heathrow third-runway infrastructure project
The IMF said the UK's tax-to-GDP ratio is roughly 40%.
John Healey said his first budget would give consumers and businesses “breathing space” while maintaining Labour’s fiscal rules. He also indicated that further energy support and aid for Ukraine could be announced.
AllegedPotential additional Treasury revenue from the proposed crackdown
UK GDP growth forecast for 2026
The TUC says cuts to the UK bank surcharge cost the public purse £6bn over three years and wants it raised to 16%. Chancellor John Healey is believed to be considering restoring it to 8% in the 28 October budget, which the TUC says would raise £2.25bn a year.
The UK bank surcharge was 8% before the 2023 reduction.